![]() ![]() I find that having a first-half passing-yard advantage increases the probability of winning, but having a first-half rushing-yard advantage has no significant effect. I use logistic models to model the probability of winning a game based on differences in rushing success and passing success in the first half. The data are the 256 regular season games for 2005. To address this issue, I use first-half statistics (essentially stripping the endogenous component from the statistics), with the justification that the halftime leader wins 78 percent of the time. ![]() Final-game rushing and passing statistics are endogenous because teams that are ahead will rush more in order to protect the ball and run the clock down. This analysis uses regression analysis to dispel the myth that controlling the rushing game wins NFL games. To evaluate whether controlling the running game or the passing game contributes more to winning in the NFL. Jeremy Arkes, Associate Professor of Economics, Graduate School of Business and Public Policy, Naval Postgraduate School ![]()
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